The San Francisco 49ers, under the guidance of head coach Kyle Shanahan, are not accustomed to playing with a losing record. Despite this unusual position, they have managed to win — and cover the spread — in their last five games under similar circumstances. This Sunday, the 49ers will strive to extend that streak to six, beginning with their performance against the New England Patriots’ offense.
Patriots’ Rushing Attack: A Threat or a Mirage?
The Patriots’ offensive identity heavily revolves around their ground game, though their efficiency leaves much to be desired. As defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen noted, “Well, they can really run the ball.” However, while New England ranks eighth in rushing attempts, they sit at a mediocre 18th in rushing success rate, which measures consistency and efficiency on a play-to-play basis. In terms of rushing EPA (Expected Points Added), a measure of the impact of big plays, the Patriots fare slightly better at 13th. However, neither of these statistics suggests a dominant rushing force.
The 49ers’ defense, currently struggling to stop the run, ranks 25th in rushing success rate allowed and 28th in rushing EPA allowed. Injuries have further complicated matters, with the loss of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and the addition of Jordan Elliott to the injury report. This leaves the 49ers vulnerable up front. However, the Patriots have had their own struggles creating running lanes, ranking 30th in the NFL in yards before contact, a crucial measure of offensive line effectiveness. The upcoming matchup will be a test of strength between two underperforming units.
Tackling the Patriots’ Ground Game
The 49ers’ defense will face a duo of hefty running backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, both of whom are powerful but lack elusiveness. The key for San Francisco will be to avoid giving up early yards and to force the Patriots into passing situations. Scoring early and making New England one-dimensional, as the New York Jets did, will be essential.
San Francisco has been proficient in tackling, with only five missed tackles in the last two games. Maintaining this standard against the Patriots’ running backs on early downs could enable them to control the tempo of the game. The question remains whether the 49ers will adjust their defensive approach, potentially stacking the box more frequently to compensate for their deficiencies at defensive tackle.
Air Attack: A Study in Contrasts
Returning to Levi’s Stadium, the 49ers enter the game as 10.5-point favorites against a Patriots team struggling to generate an effective aerial attack. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has shown reluctance to throw deep, attempting only five passes over 20 yards this season. In contrast, Brock Purdy, the 49ers’ quarterback, ranks second in the NFL in average throw depth, emphasizing a more aggressive passing strategy.
New England’s passing offense primarily relies on tight end Hunter Henry and wide receiver Demario Douglas, the only two players with double-digit targets. This predictability could play into the hands of the 49ers’ defense, particularly linebacker Fred Warner, who excels in coverage over the middle. If San Francisco can contain these limited passing options, it will further hinder the Patriots’ offensive rhythm.
Pressuring the Patriots’ Pocket
While Brissett’s mobility has allowed him to extend plays, the Patriots’ offensive line has struggled, ranking second-highest in the league for pressure rate allowed. The absence of Hargrave will put additional pressure on Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd to disrupt Brissett in the pocket. Historically, the 49ers have had difficulty containing mobile quarterbacks, but Brissett’s tendency to prioritize passing before scrambling could work in their favor.
The Patriots’ offensive line issues extend beyond technique to health, with several players sporting knee braces and backups forced into starting roles. If the 49ers’ pass rush can exploit these weaknesses, they stand a good chance of neutralizing Brissett’s effectiveness.
The Patriots’ Offensive Woes
New England’s offense has been largely anemic, scoring only 16, 20, and 3 points in their first three games. Even in their most productive game against Seattle, Brissett managed just 149 passing yards, with nearly three-quarters of those going to Henry. Such limited offensive firepower presents an opportunity for the 49ers’ defense to regain confidence and control the game.
For the 49ers, this game represents a crucial chance to correct course early in the season. With the Patriots’ offense struggling to find its footing and the 49ers eager to prove they can still dominate, this matchup could serve as a turning point. San Francisco must capitalize on New England’s vulnerabilities, particularly on the offensive line and in their passing game, to secure a much-needed victory and extend their streak of success when facing adversity.
